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Seven years ago, it took just eight words to energize the party's annual gathering demonstrating the party was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. While not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

When the noise subsided, Keir Starmer, remained at the lectern, blinking in surprise. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses having such an effect. All he had said was: "We are not excluding staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who sought to prioritize Brexit voters in working-class seats above the pro-European instincts of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position & Closed Issues

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue had been settled by the previous year’s national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” commitments that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has been to pursue Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite polling evidence suggests a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if Europe is no longer the boiling pot of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have ramped up the rhetoric regarding the damage caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and remains his sole political accomplishment.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, towers over the micro-mitigation so far offered by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

The chancellor is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can travel between the UK and the EU to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, last week supported a Liberal Democrat motion on joining one.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal involves declaring the commencement of talks immediately on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water on the idea cautioning that a return to a European customs area could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his government.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of sectors, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK to join the EU’s new defence fund and the subsequent collapse in talks has led British officials that European nations are less interested in cutting special deals with Britain than in demonstrating that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by Moscow, is seen by some influential figures in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy and Geopolitical Calculations

This strange and concerning document claims Europe faces cultural extinction due to immigration. It contains a single mention of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

However, instead of concluding that this makes America an undependable ally, ministers reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo from the Past

All of which brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but merely an effort to preserve the possibility of remain being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” of the kind he currently seems to reject.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is part of a clutch of cabinet ministers letting it be known they want to go further regarding the EU.

Staff for the Deputy Prime Minister, another probable runner in a contest to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Obvious Danger & A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to claim the territory where the overwhelming majority of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to remember the effect that a short phrase had for him seven years ago. There are options for a big offer on Europe which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.